Mortgage rates ticked slightly lower last week, with the 30-year fixed sitting at 6.42% as of last Friday — down a couple of basis points from the prior week. Not a dramatic move in either direction, but a useful week to look at because the data the bond market was reacting to didn't all point the same way.

If there's a theme to last week, it's mixed signals. Some of the data was firmer than expected, some came in softer, and the bond market — which is what actually drives mortgage rates — sorted through all of it without making any big decisions. That's why rates barely moved.

Here's what happened and what's coming up this week.

Where Rates Are Right Now

Current 1 Week Change

30-Year Fixed

6.42% -0.02%

15-Year Fixed

5.99% -0.02%

30-Year FHA

5.93% -0.02%

7/6 SOFR ARM

6.27% +0.22%

30-Year VA

5.95% -0.01%

(Source: Mortgage News Daily)

Most rate categories ticked down a small amount on the week. The 7/6 SOFR ARM was the one outlier, up 22 basis points, which reflects movement in the short end of the yield curve rather than anything happening with traditional 30-year fixed loans.

The 52-week range tells the bigger story — the 30-year fixed has been sitting between roughly 6.00% and 7.10% over the past year, so where we are right now is in the middle of that range. Not at the highs, not at the lows. A reasonable place to be.

What Drove the Action Last Week

Two main areas of data came in last week, and both of them were mixed.

On the labor side, the ADP Employment Report showed private payrolls increased by 109,000 in April, which was lower than the expected 118,000. That number on its own might suggest hiring is slowing. But then the Employment Situation Report — which is the bigger, more comprehensive report — showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000, well above the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.3%. Wage growth came in at 3.6% annually. The takeaway: the labor market is still steady, even if the month-to-month numbers bounce around.

On the housing side, the story was similar. Building permits slipped 11.4% month-over-month in March, reversing a sharp gain in February. Mortgage application submissions decreased 4.4% for the week ending May 1. On the other hand, new home sales increased 8.9% in February to an annualized pace of 635,000, and construction spending increased 0.6% in March. So housing supply data was uneven, but the underlying demand for new homes held up.

Consumer credit also jumped sharply — up $24.86 billion in March, well above the expected $12.50 billion. That means consumers are still spending and borrowing, which is a sign of overall economic activity continuing.

For the bond market, when data is genuinely mixed like this, it generally results in rates moving sideways or only slightly. Bond traders don't tend to make big bets when the picture isn't clear, and that's exactly what happened.

What to Watch This Week

This week has several important data releases that could move rates more than last week did:

●     Monday, May 11 — Existing Home Sales (prior: 3.6%)

●     Tuesday, May 12 — ADP Employment Report and Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI release at 8:30 AM is the big one for the week. Annual CPI was last at 3.3%, and any meaningful move in either direction will get a reaction from the bond market.

●     Wednesday, May 13 — MBA Mortgage Applications

●     Thursday, May 14 — Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, and Retail Sales

Of all of these, the Tuesday CPI print is the one to watch most closely. Inflation data drives the Fed's thinking, which drives bond yields, which drives mortgage rates. A cooler-than-expected CPI tends to be good for rates. A hotter print tends to push them up.

What This Means Locally

For buyers and sellers here in the Lowcountry, the practical takeaway from last week is that rates are still in the same general range they've been in for months. Nothing has changed dramatically. If you've been waiting for some kind of major shift before making a move, the data hasn't given you a clear signal either way.

The Bluffton market continues to see strong demand from out-of-state buyers, and inventory in the more popular communities remains tight. Rate movement at the margins matters, but the bigger factors driving local activity — migration trends, the area's appeal, the broader Southeast growth story — keep moving in the same direction they have been.

If you're thinking about buying, selling, or refinancing and want to talk through what current rates actually mean for your specific situation, Jules and I are happy to walk through it. As a mortgage broker as well as a realtor, I can give you a real picture of what's happening in the rate market and what to expect on a payment. Just reach out.

Rate data: Mortgage News Daily, week ending May 8, 2026. Economic data: ADP Research Institute, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve Consumer Credit release.

Jeff & Jules Moran
Anchor & Isle Real Estate
Bluffton & Hilton Head Island

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